I'm interested in buying a used i-Miev or Smart and I'm wondering how prices are going to change in the next 2 to 3 years. As I understand it, up to 2/3 of the price on small cars like these is coming from the expensive battery. As car companies start producing their own batteries, or as battery suppliers get better equipped to manufacture huge quantities of better, cheaper battery technologies and Giga battery factories start being built around the world (Tesla in the US, Daimler in Germany, CATL in China), lithium-ion batteries are expected to drop in price (perhaps faster than the expected 7% annually) and that would have a huge effect on the price of both new and used cars.
Of course, there are other factors affecting used EV prices such as the number of lease returns, new offerings from new companies entering the market (most have promised to get in the game by 2020), ICE car prices, gas prices...
If I get into EVs now, and start saving fuel, I could be losing these savings to the higher price I'll pay.
Oversimplified example : I buy an 8000$, 2014 ED and save 2000$ in fuel over the next 2 years. Total spent : 6000$. OR, I wait 2 years and, MAYBE, can get a 2016 for 5000-6000$.
How do you think the market prices for EVs are going to change in the next 3 years?