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mlab

EV prices in the next 3 years

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Hi,

I'm interested in buying a used i-Miev or Smart and I'm wondering how prices are going to change in the next 2 to 3 years.  As I understand it, up to 2/3 of the price on small cars like these is coming from the expensive battery. As car companies start producing their own batteries, or as battery suppliers  get better equipped to manufacture huge quantities of better, cheaper battery technologies and Giga battery factories start being built around the world (Tesla in the US, Daimler in Germany, CATL in China), lithium-ion batteries are expected to drop in price (perhaps faster than the expected 7% annually) and that would have a huge effect on the price of both new and used cars.  

 

Of course, there are other factors affecting used EV prices such as the number of lease returns, new offerings from new companies entering the market (most have promised to get in the game by 2020), ICE car prices, gas prices...

If I get into EVs now,  and start saving fuel, I could be losing these savings to the higher price I'll pay. 
Oversimplified example : I buy an 8000$, 2014 ED and save 2000$ in fuel over the next 2 years. Total spent : 6000$. OR, I wait 2 years and, MAYBE, can get a 2016  for 5000-6000$. 

 

How do you think the market prices for EVs are going to change in the next 3 years?

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I think that buying an electric smart or i-Miev used won't make sense unless they're super cheap and you can walk away comfortably if something bonks a year or two in.  These cars (smarts) are not the most reliable on the road so the presumption that there will be no repairs may not hold.

 

The dream that some have about retrofitted high density batteries in smarts and other old generation cars seem to me to be misguided.  An old electric car will be as popular as an iPhone 4S is today, in fact I should think that the smart ED and i-Miev are the most vulnerable because of their low range to begin with.

 

So think about what range you will need, and choose a used EV that can achieve that at 50% of its nominal range, and go from there.

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In my opinion as a previous 450 owner, the 453 is vastly superior.

In our case, the Ed version has so far exceeded our expectations

and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The range 

doesn't bother us at all and, a charge is only required every two or

three days using a dedicated 115V outlet. If your needs can be met

by an ED, go for it...:rolleyes:

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mlab seems to be looking for advice on used EDs though.... so your advice is to wait and get a 453 ED in a few years?

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On 1/5/2018 at 10:04 PM, MikeT said:

I think that buying an electric smart or i-Miev used won't make sense unless they're super cheap and you can walk away comfortably if something bonks a year or two in.  These cars (smarts) are not the most reliable on the road so the presumption that there will be no repairs may not hold.

 

The dream that some have about retrofitted high density batteries in smarts and other old generation cars seem to me to be misguided.  An old electric car will be as popular as an iPhone 4S is today, in fact I should think that the smart ED and i-Miev are the most vulnerable because of their low range to begin with.

 

So think about what range you will need, and choose a used EV that can achieve that at 50% of its nominal range, and go from there.

Good point on reliability not always being as high as one might expect from an EV. I will try to find one with some residual powertrain and battery warranty. I was wondering about the price for 4-5 year old EVs now VS in a few years. I'm not, however, interested in waiting to buy the 4-5 yr old car when it's 7 or 8 years old. Simply put : buy now and start saving, or wait and save just as much on the sticker price.

Thanks for your input.

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Posted (edited) · Report post

Don't forget  if you purchase a new smart ED in Quebec,

you get an $8000.00 purchase incentive,,,:)

Plus with Quebec having the highest percentage of

Hydro electric in Canada, you're doing your part to

reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Edited by lebikerboy

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Just now, lebikerboy said:

Don't forget  if you purchase a new smart ED in Quebec,

you get an $8000.00 purchase incentive,,,:)

Plus with Quebec having the highest percentage of

Hydro electric in Canada, you're doing your part to

reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

And what is the starting price of Smart ED in Canada?Just curious :D

 

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On 1/14/2018 at 10:16 AM, lebikerboy said:

Don't forget  if you purchase a new smart ED in Quebec,

you get an $8000.00 purchase incentive,,,:)

Plus with Quebec having the highest percentage of

Hydro electric in Canada, you're doing your part to

reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

The hydro electricity part, I agree with entirely. The 8k incentive, however, is another story. lol :)  

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Here in the UK used EV prices plummet like Hans Gruber off the Nakatomi building.  A 3 year old Renault Zoe is for sale locally - three years old, 14,000 miles, a third of its new price.  At those prices the risk is minimal here in the UK.

 

That may change in the future though as they become more mainstream.  In addition, industry is struggling to find sufficient rare earth  metal supplies for the electrics and batteries, which could affect production and therefore values.  

 

In summary, here in the UK used prices are so poor EVs are a good gamble second hand at the moment, but that may change in unpredictable ways.

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Right now, the best guess for the trajectory of EV prices is that they will be going down, but there are a few mitigating factors. 

 

Batteries use rare earth elements that are expensive to extract. Hopefully battery chemistry will evolve to where they are less difficult and costly to manufacture. 

 

The EV market has been plagued since day 1 by the charging infrastructure issue. It's been a chicken-and-egg problem, and Tesla tackled it by building out their own charging network before anyone else did. Now there's more being spent on building out the public and private charging infrastructure, using carbon cap-and-trade revenue to fund a lot of the expansion. However, loss of that revenue (which has just happened in Ontario) makes the infrastructure question (and green energy in general) a lot more uncertain. This could reduce the attractiveness of the EV as an option for many people, reducing sales, pushing prices back up.

 

I think a greater issue is that there's a lot of unknowns (and bad information) about the longevity of the battery packs. Most car companies will conservatively say about 8 years before performance starts to degrade, but everything I've seen has shown that they could in fact last much longer. The “unknown” factor of battery longevity and replacement cost is what keeps a lot of people away from used hybrids and EVs. But it seems like a few ED owners here have reported almost no battery degradation over 4+ years, and I know my brother had a Prius that still worked as well as it did brand new, after 8+ years of mixed driving. 

 

So there's really no clear answer as to the direction of the prices of new and used EVs. 

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